A growing body of research explores this phenomenon in the African context, tying its occurrence to a variety of demographic transitional factors popular among which are fertility and dynamic population age structures. In three essays, this dissertation explores the demographic dividend in cross section of sub-Saharan African SSA countries with emphasis on the fertility transition as it relates to other demographic and economic parameters. In the first essay, I investigate the relationship between the decelerating pace of fertility decline and economic growth in seven SSA countries using a random effects growth model. I find that stalled fertility decline has a consistently, statistically significant negative effect on economic growth. In the second essay, I use age-specific National Transfer Accounts data to estimate the support ratio and demographic dividend for the period through , and decompose the difference in the support ratio components estimated for all the countries using Nigeria; the earliest-transition country in the sample as my baseline. By departing from the use of conventional, fixed age-limits to define the support ratio, I improve on the accuracy of prior support ratio estimates, and with my decomposition, I provide a new and comprehensive view of the component contributions of economic versus demographic behavior to the overall dividend.
Demographic Transition Model
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Swami, Madhubala : Demographic dividend: Challenges and opportunities for India. Demographic dividend is the result of demographic transition which brings about a change in the age structure of the population of a country. After going through phases of high birth rate and high death rate in the s, India entered into a phase of declining fertility and mortality rate in the eighties. India is one of the few countries in the world having a high proportion of its population in the age group of While a large proportion of young population increases consumption and provides impetus to production and GDP of the country, high savings and investment by the elderly enhances economic growth. However, demographic dividend poses various challenges for India where social infrastructure is still lagging behind. India needs to allocate sufficient resources to improve educational and healthcare infrastructure to meet the requirements of the young and the elderly.
Demographic dividend occurs when the proportion of working people in the total population is high because this indicates that more people have the potential to be productive and contribute to growth of the economy. Due to the dividend between young and old, many argue that there is great potential for economic gains, which has been termed the "demographic gift". However, this drop in fertility rates is not immediate.
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